Ungerns vägval 2026

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Abstract

Hungary’s Crossroads in 2026: Factors That May Decide the Election

This article examines the political conditions shaping Hungary’s parliamentary election in 2026. Since returning to power in 2010, the Fidesz party under Viktor Orbán has transformed the country’s political system through constitutional change, media concentration and the strategic use of state resources. While elections continue to be held, political competition increasingly takes place on unequal terms.

The analysis draws on research on competitive authoritarianism and democratic backsliding to show how electoral procedures formally remain intact while their democratic substance is gradually weakened. Particular attention is given to the emergence of the Tisza movement, led by Péter Magyar, which has rapidly mobilised significant support by framing itself as a moral alternative to a corrupt and clientelist system. At the same time, Tisza faces serious structural constraints, including limited organisational capacity, restricted access to the media and an electoral system that favours the incumbent.

Using scenario analysis, the article identifies key factors likely to influence the outcome of the 2026 election. These include the design of the electoral system, the distribution of economic and communicative resources, the use of fearbased campaigning, and voters’ perceptions of risk, stability and the possibility of change. The article argues that the election will not be decided by voter preferences alone, but by how these preferences are translated into political power within a structurally skewed system.

The 2026 election thus represents a critical test of the limits of electoral democracy in Hungary. While opposition mobilisation has become more plausible than at any point since 2010, the election will also reveal how resilient a competitive authoritarian system can be when faced with a credible challenge at the ballot box.