Authoritarianism and Elections during the Third Wave

Abstract

Authoritarianism and Elections during the Third Wave
“Electoral authoritarianism” has become the buzzword of the last decade of regime studies. But how did various types of authoritarian elections spread across time and how are they distributed between different regime types? I combine and update datasets on elections, authoritarianism, and democracy to analyze the development in authoritarian elections during the third wave of democratization. The analysis reveals that elections are not randomly distributed across authoritarian regimes. The results suggest that the liberal world order post-1989 most likely accounts for the marked increase in multiparty elections in authoritarian contexts. At the same time, the presence of, in particular, one- and no-party authoritarian elections during the Cold War, when there was no international pressure for democratization, indicates that dictators may institute elections with a view to entrenching themselves in power. The fact that elections are more common in civilian regimes that – in contrast with monarchies and military regimes – lack a readymade institution through which to govern, also supports this notion. The patterns revealed suggest that the causes of authoritarian elections merit further study.