Scenarioanalys, wicked problems och krisberedskapsplanering

Ett olösligt problem?

Abstract

Scenario analysis, Wicked Problems, and Crisis Preparedness Planning. A Credible Combination?

In 2011 the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) developed a model for scenario analysis within the National Risk and Capability Assessment-process (NRFB) to produce viable capability assessments and analysis. While being inspired by EU recommendations, the results were to be used as basis for crisis preparedness planning and policy development. From 2012 up until 2021 the NRFB’s scenario analysis program ran its course and 19 different scenario analyses were produced, all focused on crisis situations. In this article we take the opportunity to assess the NRFB’s scenario analysis program to see how conflicting goals and contextual factors shaped the chosen methodological parameters, and how that dictated the NRFB program’s ability to deal with the scenarios presented. As a theoretical starting point, the article argues that all of the scenarios produced can be characterized as wicked problems, and that this put restraints on what NRFB’s scenario analyses were able to produce from a policy and planning perspective. In unexpected ways, however, we argue that the program was not a failure. Being in the business of public trust and confidence, the results of the study is of high relevance during a time in which preparedness activities of states are climbing on the political agenda after recent pandemics and wars. The article shows the importance of maintaining a well-developed theoretical model for scenario analysis, solving conflicting goals at the beginning, and keeping track of how contemporary issues and political trends affects the results.