Strategisk misstro

De växande sino-amerikanska motsättningarna

Abstract

Strategic mistrust – the growing Sino-American antagonism

Relations between the US and China, undeniably the most important relationship of our time, are characterized by growing strategic mistrust.

The rise of an increasingly authoritarian China is a defining trend. In the Chinese Communist Party’s analysis, a shift has taken place from opportunities to struggle under hostile circumstances, and preparations for the “storm” that awaits. The expansion of the armed forces has highest priority. The People’s Army (PLA) must not only defend the country but also, ultimately, the party.

The 2022 US National Security Strategy describes China as the only country with “both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to realize this goal.” China is described as “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge”.

Many parallels are drawn to the Cold war. As regards China there is, however, no “endgame”. The country is not an empire of the kind that can fall apart, like the Soviet empire. Unlike the Soviet Union, the Chinese economy also makes up about a fifth of the world economy, deeply integrated into global value chains. China has, furthermore, proven to be far more innovative than a country with China’s system “should” be able to be. China’s rise is a challenging reality.

With the US shooting down of the Chinese “balloon” in February 2023, the world was suddenly reminded of Sino-US distrust, and the lack of established channels and “safeguards”, at a time when Taiwan increasingly is becoming a geopolitical epicenter and the world is drifting into a new nuclear era. The US and China are not “destined for war”, but mutual trust is in alarmingly short supply.