Kriget i Ukraina och den euroatlantiska säkerhetsordningen

Abstract

The war in Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic security order

What is at stake in Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is not merely Ukraine’s future as a free and independent state, but also what kind Euroatlantic security order we will have after the war. The article presents a model for how shifts in security orders can take place, and – applying the model – argues that the ongoing war constitutes a violent rupture in the status quo that will trigger dramatic changes in the security landscape. However, the liberal Euroatlantic security order instituted after the end of the Cold War was already defunct well before the war started, this because it had in-built fatal flaws. The new order that will grow out of the war will probably be less liberal and more realistic, shaped ad hoc by the war’s outcome and consequences. Finally, some of the contours of the factors that might influence this are sketched.