Abrahamavtalens implikationer för fred i Mellanöstern

Abstract

The Abraham Accords’ implications for peace in the Middle East

The Abraham Accords, signed by Israel and four Arab states in 2020, were one of President Donald Trump’s most renowned foreign policy successes. They were also one of few of his administration’s policies that enjoyed bipartisan support in the US. But what type of peace has emerged following the Abraham Accords? In what ways do the Abraham Accords go beyond the cold and authoritarian peace that Israel enjoys with Egypt, Jordan and to a certain extent with the Palestinian Authority? Departing from the four dimensions of cold, warm, authoritarian, and democratic peace, this article aims to problematize the peace created after the Abraham Accords. The analysis shows that change in relations between elites and publics during the two years that has followed since the signing of the accords escapes easy categorization and has elements of all four peace dimensions. Trade and tourism have increased significantly, and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco have made alterations in their education about the Holocaust. All this points to a warmer and more recognitional peace than the peace Israel has enjoyed with Egypt and Jordan. However, at the same time, local activists that protest the Abraham Accords are regularly abused. This is done not least with the aid of Israeli cyber technology, which is being exported to three of four Arab states that are part of the Abraham Accords. As we show in the analysis, the new peace and normalization agreements within the Abraham Accords are part of the modernization strategies of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and even Saudi Arabia for the coming decades. These modernization strategies, which include aspects of liberalization as well, shall, with the possible exception of Sudan, not in any way be confused with democratization.