Kan en ny våg av demokratidemonstrationer i Hongkong sprida sig till det kinesiska fastlandet?

Abstract

During 2019, the special administrative region of Hong Kong experienced one of the largest waves of pro-democracy demonstrations in the city’s history. So far, the demonstrations in Hong Kong have not spread to the Chinese mainland. By applying theories derived from the democratic diffusion literature, this article assesses the probability that a new wave of Hong Kong demonstrations would spread to Mainland China. The article finds that although officially belonging to the same state, Hong Kong and Mainland China are in practice separated in a number of ways that should make democratic diffusion relatively difficult. However, if democratic diffusion would take place, democracy demonstrations are more likely to spread to China’s southern Guangdong province, since the region is geographically, culturally and socially proximate to Hong Kong.