Antagonistens roll

Vad Napoleon och KGB kan lära oss om beslutsfattandets konst inom militär ledning och underrättelseanalys

Abstract

Professionalization is a growing trend in both military and intelligence organizations. However, unlike the traditional professions, both military decision-makers and intelligence analysts frequently find themselves locked in a struggle with an intelligent antagonist. One key aspect of professionalization, the teaching of structured, scientifically based knowledge and best practices, can lead to predictability. This creates a vulnerability that can be exploited by an antagonist. Using theories formulated by Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, together with examples from Napoleon’s campaign in Northern Italy and the KGB’s deception operation to conceal a mole in the CIA, it is shown how personal qualities, creativity and unpredictability rather than conformity are required to prevail against an intelligent, well-informed and capable antagonist. Thus, both the military decision-maker and the intelligence analyst have more in common with the chess player than the traditional professional.