Comment on Jakob, Dechamps & Maier

How to Read a Paper

Authors

  • Peter A. Bancel

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31156/jaex.25420

Keywords:

Bayesian t test, optional stopping, multiple testing, psychokinesis, mind-matter interaction, replication crisis, psi

Abstract

In this issue of JAEX, Jakob et al. (2024) report results from an experiment to test whether an implicit psychokinetic effect related to unconscious intention can alter the outcome of quantum events. The experiment is well conceived and executed. However, the claim of evidence to support the experimental hypothesis is undermined by errors of analysis and of omission. Some are not obvious and require a careful reading to discern. I explain the nature of the mistakes, where and how they arise, and the consequences for the inferences the authors’ draw. I emphasize that a helpful way to detect such problems is by following the chain of inference in experimental reports. Editors, reviewers, and particularly authors can protect the integrity of the scientific literature by reading carefully in this way.

References

Bancel, P. A. (2017). Searching for global consciousness: A 17-year exploration. EXPLORE, 13(2), 94–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.explore.2016.12.003

Bem, D. J. (2011). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 407–425. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021524

Bem, D., Tressoldi, P., Rabeyron, T., & Duggan, M. (2016). Feeling the future: A meta-analysis of 90 experiments on the anomalous anticipation of random future events. F1000Research, 4, 1188. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.7177.2

Berry, D. A., & Hochberg, Y. (1999). Bayesian perspectives on multiple comparisons. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 82(1), 215–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-3758(99)00044-0

Ehrlich, R. (2021). Eight preposterous propositions. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691228402

Gelman, A., Hill, J., & Yajima, M. (2012). Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 5(2), 189–211. https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2011.618213

Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005). Why most published research findings are false. PLOS Medicine, 2(8), e124. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

Jahn, R., Dunne, B., Bradish, G., Dobyns, Y., Lettieri, A., Nelson, R., …. & Walter, B. (2000). Mind/ Machine interaction consortium: portREG replication experiments. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 14(4), 499–555.

Kekecs, Z., Palfi, B., Szaszi, B., Szecsi, P., Zrubka, M., Kovacs, M., … Aczel, B. (2023). Raising the value of research studies in psychological science by increasing the credibility of research reports: The transparent Psi project. Royal Society Open Science, 10(2), 191375. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.191375

Kruschke, J. K. (2021). Bayesian analysis reporting guidelines. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(10), Article 10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01177-7

Makin, T. R., & Orban de Xivry, J.-J. (2019). Ten common statistical mistakes to watch out for when writing or reviewing a manuscript. eLife, 8, e48175. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.48175

Muhmenthaler, M. C., Dubravac, M., & Meier, B. (2022). The future failed: No evidence for precognition in a large scale replication attempt of Bem (2011). Psychology of Consciousness: Theory, Research, and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1037/cns0000342

Nieuwenhuis, S., Forstmann, B. U., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2011). Erroneous analyses of interactions in neuroscience: A problem of significance. Nature Neuroscience, 14(9), Article 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/nn.2886

Palfi, B., & Dienes, Z. (2020). Why Bayesian “evidence for H1” in one condition and Bayesian “evidence for H0” in another condition does not mean good-enough Bayesian evidence for a difference between the conditions. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 3(3), 300–308. https://doi.org/10.1177/2515245920913019

Scheel, A. M., Schijen, M. R. M. J., & Lakens, D. (2021). An excess of positive results: Comparing the standard psychology literature with registered reports. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 4(2), 25152459211007467. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459211007467

Schlitz, M., Bem, D., Marcusson-Clavertz, D., Cardeña, E., Lyke, J., Grover, R., … & Delorme, A. (2021). Two replication studies of a time-reversed (psi) priming task and the role of expectancy in reaction times. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 35(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.31275/20211903

Schmalz, X., Biurrun Manresa, J., & Zhang, L. (2023). What is a Bayes factor? Psychological Methods, 28(3), 705–718. https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000421

Schönbrodt, F. D., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2018). Bayes factor design analysis: Planning for compelling evidence. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(1), 128–142. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1230-y

Sjölander, A., & Vansteelandt, S. (2019). Frequentist versus Bayesian approaches to multiple testing. European Journal of Epidemiology, 34(9), 809–821. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-019-00517-2

Varvoglis, M., & Bancel, P. A. (2015). Micro-psychokinesis. In In E. Cardeña, J. Palmer, & D. Marcusson-Clavertz (Eds.), Parapsychology: A handbook for the 21st century (pp. 266–281). McFarland.

Varvoglis, M., & Bancel, P. A. (2016). Micro-psychokinesis: Exceptional or universal? Journal of Parapsychology, 80(1), 37–44.

Wagenmakers, E.-J., Sarafoglou, A., Aarts, S., Albers, C., Algermissen, J., Bahník, Š., … Aczel, B. (2021). Seven steps toward more transparency in statistical practice. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(11), Article 11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01211-8

Wasserstein, R. L., Schirm, A. L., & Lazar, N. A. (2019). Moving to a world beyond “ p < 0.05.” The American Statistician, 73(sup1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2019.1583913

Downloads

Published

2024-06-05

How to Cite

Bancel, P. A. (2024). Comment on Jakob, Dechamps & Maier: How to Read a Paper. Journal of Anomalous Experience and Cognition, 4(1), 60–78. https://doi.org/10.31156/jaex.25420

Issue

Section

Empirical Papers