Vem såg det inte komma?

Om det rysk-ukrainska kriget, underrättelseutredningen (SOU 2025:78) och analysnivåer i studiet av underrättelsemisslyckanden

Abstract

Who did not see it coming? On the Russo-Ukrainian War, the Inquiry into the Swedish Intelligence and Security Services, and Levels of Analysis in the Study of Intelligence Failures

On 15 June 2025, a governmental inquiry into the Swedish intelligence and security services, headed by the former Prime and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, presented its report En reformerad underrättelsetjänst (SOU 2025:78). Among other proposals, the Inquiry advised that a new foreign intelligence agency should be established, inter alia, with reference to a failed warning process with the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Agency (Must) in the runup to the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in February 2022. This article provides a critical review of the arguments and findings made by the Inquiry. It concludes that the establishment of a new intelligence agency, as suggested by the Inquiry, as well as several other of the Inquiry’s proposals, increases the risk of a politicization of Sweden’s foreign intelligence.