Klimat och konflikt i Syrien

Ett rumsligt perspektiv på torka, jordbruk och sårbarhet i Syrien under perioden 2000–2022

Abstract

Climate and conflict in Syria: a spatial perspective of drought, agriculture and vulerability in Syria during the period 2000–2022.

The Syrian civil war has been described as a first example of the conflicts expected in the wake of climate change. The conflict, which started in 2011, was preceded by a severe drought in 2007–2009 that hit agriculture and the rural population hard. But what do we really know about what happened to Syria’s climate and agriculture before and after the start of the conflict? In this article, I summarize the debate on climate driven conflict in Syria and build further with an analysis of drought and land use using satellite images. Through an analysis of water and land management in the decades before the 2007–2009 drought, a comparison of drought periods since the 1960s, and a satellite image-based analysis of agricultural activity in the period 2000–2019, I show how drought and conflict have affected Syria’s agricultural system, and discuss what is required for sustainable reconstruction and climate adaptation. Finally, I discuss the connection between climate and conflict from a security perspective and look towards the future and alternative discourses.